The Evolution of UNFCCC and Climate Change Displacement: A Case Study of Conferences of the Parties (COPS)
Vol. 31
May 2024
Page 34
Climate change refers to the ongoing increase of average temperatures across our planet and the corresponding effects. It’s estimated that our planet’s temperature will increase, on average, by 1.5 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. As this occurs, among other consequences, sea levels are expected to rise, extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, and mean precipitation levels are expected to decrease, leading to drought. This, in turn, will force many to move elsewhere as their communities are encroached on by the ocean, flooded, or unable to obtain drinking water. While migrant projections vary drastically between researchers, it’s clear this will be a significant international issue. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) addresses significant international issues related to climate change in their annual Conference of the Parties or COP. The first COP convention occurred in Berlin in 1995, with the most recent (COP28) taking place in Dubai 2023.
This paper seeks to explore how the past 28 COP conventions have contemplated and addressed climate change and environmental displacement concerns – as a low priority or a principal adaptation solution. In exacting the current weight climate displacement holds in the eyes of the UNFCCC, proponents of international climate displacement policy solutions can hold the entity accountable and ensure their interests have a spot at the table. Additionally, increased attention to displacement on the COP agenda is indicative of potential solutions, such as the creation of a “climate refugee” status or international polices and/or agreements to address migrants.
This analysis begins by laying out the issue of climate change, its effects leading to displacement, and the projections of what climate displacement may look like in the future. Background information on the purpose and framework for the UNFCCC and its COPs will also be provided. Then, this paper will address the lack of current international policy governing climate displacement, past attempts to do so, and the need for an international response. Lastly, an analysis will be done specifically for the UNFCCC COP framework and how it’s tackled climate displacement over the years.
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Climate change refers to the ongoing increase of average temperatures across our planet and the corresponding effects. It’s estimated that our planet’s temperature will increase, on average, by 1.5 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. As this occurs, among other consequences, sea levels are expected to rise, extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, and mean precipitation levels are expected to decrease, leading to drought. This, in turn, will force many to move elsewhere as their communities are encroached on by the ocean, flooded, or unable to obtain drinking water. While migrant projections vary drastically between researchers, it’s clear this will be a significant international issue. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) addresses significant international issues related to climate change in their annual Conference of the Parties or COP. The first COP convention occurred in Berlin in 1995, with the most recent (COP28) taking place in Dubai 2023.
This paper seeks to explore how the past 28 COP conventions have contemplated and addressed climate change and environmental displacement concerns – as a low priority or a principal adaptation solution. In exacting the current weight climate displacement holds in the eyes of the UNFCCC, proponents of international climate displacement policy solutions can hold the entity accountable and ensure their interests have a spot at the table. Additionally, increased attention to displacement on the COP agenda is indicative of potential solutions, such as the creation of a “climate refugee” status or international polices and/or agreements to address migrants.
This analysis begins by laying out the issue of climate change, its effects leading to displacement, and the projections of what climate displacement may look like in the future. Background information on the purpose and framework for the UNFCCC and its COPs will also be provided. Then, this paper will address the lack of current international policy governing climate displacement, past attempts to do so, and the need for an international response. Lastly, an analysis will be done specifically for the UNFCCC COP framework and how it’s tackled climate displacement over the years.